UK House Prices Finally Start Falling: What Next?

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2 aylar önce

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UK house prices defied rate hikes but are now falling rapidly, raising concerns. This video delves into the reasons and future prospects.
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1. www.economicshelp.org/blog/55...
2. www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/in...
3. www.nber.org/papers/w21154
4. www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers...
5. www.ft.com/content/2f290c38-c...
6. www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...
7. www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeap...
8. www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...
9. www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
10. www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...
11. www.ft.com/content/4ca0eac8-8...
12. www.ft.com/content/001deea0-5...
13. www.ft.com/content/9945bdcc-1...

YORUMLAR: 790

@DorathyJoy Aylar önce

The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?

@Davidtimber Aylar önce

If you are new to the market, I recommend seeking professional assistance. The most effective approach to creating a well-organized portfolio is to begin with a professional who is knowledgeable about the turbulent yet profitable market.

@RaymondKeen. Aylar önce

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@HarveyMark-gk1om Aylar önce

How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

@RaymondKeen. Aylar önce

I'm been guided by "Margaret Johnson Arndt." who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.

@macClinton-di6qv Aylar önce

I just looked her up on the internet and looked into her credentials. I wrote her a letter outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.

@gingerkilkus Aylar önce

The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.

@TomD226 Aylar önce

You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.

@lowcostfresh2266 Aylar önce

@@TomD226 Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.

@TomD226 Aylar önce

@lowcostfresh2266 Actually, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention this, but I'd recommend looking up Laurel Dell Sroufe because she was a big deal in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as both my coach and my manager.

@leojack9090 Aylar önce

@@TomD226 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

@mzo.7333 2 aylar önce

Our society has become obsessed with everything increasing in value as opposed to staying stable... and in the last 60 years we've seen how our economic system is crumbling and needs to be propped up artificially

@Bushflare 2 aylar önce

In most aspects of modern life we're at war with the uncomfortable reality of things. Trying to pretend one thing is another thing and that problems don't exist. The housing bubble is just one small sud in the colossal reality bubble we've built for ourselves and heaven help us when that one pops...

@cerber991 2 aylar önce

Value increasing is the artificial part here, which also has active, negative propping up elements. The affordability part has been neglected. Artifical correction will only ever be as useful as minimum wage raises- the effect is fast-diminishing and everyone uses it as an excuse to ramp up their profiteering. The pricing, profiteering and asymmetric information are what needs to be addressed.

@itsawill9268 2 aylar önce

@@Bushflareany evidence?

@serebii666 2 aylar önce

"opposed to staying stable" Well things staying stable means less overall mobility in general. Modern economies focus on growth because that is the best guarantor that people can change their lives on an individual scale and within their lifetimes for the better. Remember, before the Industrial Revolution, society, economy and prices were generally stable for centuries, but that also meant most of everyone remained within the social and economic parameters into which they were born.

@michaelstimpson1137 2 aylar önce

@@serebii666 Not really, the reason we need continuous growth is because all new money is created as debt. All economic growth is simply how much new debt has been created . The new growth is needed to cover inflation which is in turn needed to reduce the dragging effect of the interest that has to be paid on all previously created money. There is no money in the system that is not without debt. If we stop growing, or contract the interest on debt will eventually overwhelm us.

@tanyapavlova4758 2 aylar önce

It will be interesting to find out how the fall is spread between the different types of housing, like say entry level homes vs semi-detached

@llanieliowe794 2 aylar önce

I hope they continue to fall prices have been far too much for so long now

@danhunt3327 2 aylar önce

I would think that higher end homes will be dropping in price faster, while smaller and starter homes remain more stable as people downsize into them.

@reno.zed1 2 aylar önce

@@llanieliowe794That would be good for you, I assume. Imagine you have bought your home last year.

@llanieliowe794 2 aylar önce

@@reno.zed1 Honestly, I don't really have much sympathy for those who have already bought their homes last year. For first time buyers they will be paying the same amount but may have more interest in the next 5 years, which isn't huge It's only those who bought second homes or homes they wanted to rent/sell who will be affected and I have the opposite of simply to these people they deserve what they are getting a lot of them don't even live in this country, the rich are the problem here they are the most selfish people and were the ones who caused this issue with their greediness anyway

@gentleben4770 2 aylar önce

The data is quite available for this information, especially geographically. The average drop in house prices is heavily influenced by London and the south. Scotland and N. England have had price rises

@TheTwinn 2 aylar önce

You know it's bad when under 35's are hoping for a housing crash so they can finally get on the ladder themselves

@liambowles7236 2 aylar önce

Oh 100% wanting this house of cards to not only come crashing down but to spontaneously combust

@avancalledrupert5130 2 aylar önce

You mean under 45s . If you weren't well into your carrier by 2002 you got fucked and rent trapped.

@SpahGaming 2 aylar önce

@@avancalledrupert5130 you mean 2008

@Duncan23 2 aylar önce

My parents paid £65,000 for a 3 bed semi detached, that same house is now worth £250,000. There is absolutely zero chance of me ever owning property.

@leeyo5494 2 aylar önce

what about if they die,

@Duncan23 2 aylar önce

@@leeyo5494 I have siblings, and there was a messy divorce. I will barely get enough for a deposit on a mortgage with stupid high interest rates let alone a reasonable one.

@JoeeyTheeKangaroo 2 aylar önce

May as well squat in someone elses home

@joshua9738 2 aylar önce

In which year?

@LucasFernandez-fk8se 2 aylar önce

250k isn’t bad is it ? In the US housing is 416k on average. Canadians it’s like 900k CAD. We are fucked in North America. The housing bubble is really high here

@davidmcintyre8145 2 aylar önce

The housing bubble has to burst simply because those sitting on properties at the moment planning to use the capital raised from the sales to pay for their old age care bills will not be able to sell these properties to the younger generation because the vast bulk of the younger generation through reasons of rent and rent hikes and wage stagnation cannot afford to save for a deposit. Therefore a lot of these houses being sat on by boomers will either not raise the hoped for sum or will prove unsaleable

@gekzify 2 aylar önce

Doesn’t work in countries with massive inequality as the 10% of the population with 60% of the wealth can afford to put multiple homes as investments. If you reduce inequality, or restrict mass investment by a small minority, then it’ll put downwards pressure on the market. Growing Inequality is exacerbating issue for housing. Check out Gary’s economics, he explains this in detail

@joshuatk59 2 aylar önce

Multiple homes will only go so far. If the majority of the population can’t afford or don’t want to pay that much for it, then prices will fall (as has been happening).

@stevenhull5025 2 aylar önce

They cannot save for a deposit yet they can spend money like pi*s on restaurant meals, wine bars, nightclubs, takeaways, £1000 I-phones, brand name clothes, Gucci handbags, £300 pair of shoes and dirty weekends in Ibiza. Give us a break please. This younger generation want to live the life of Riley yet don't want to face the reality of their own actions. Stop blaming everyone else and take a hard look in the mirror. The world does not owe you a living.

@rake483 2 aylar önce

Oh no, an estimated 10% drop in prices after a 207% increase in the last 20 years. These poor poor home owners!

@Paul-zu2he 2 aylar önce

It won't be 10%, it will be a lot more. And bear in mind it's a percentage off of your 207% total. Which if it's 25% down is a lot of money.

@James-mb3je 2 aylar önce

@@Paul-zu2hewell, it likley won't be more than 10% off the sticker price. But yes, once you factor in inflation the prices will be 30-40% lower than they "should be" Also this crash has been happening for over 12 months now.

@Paul-zu2he 2 aylar önce

@@James-mb3je why won't it 'likely be'? Says who? You?

@andyquattro8748 2 aylar önce

If you only bought your house last year then yes, poor home owners!!

@Paul-zu2he 2 aylar önce

@@andyquattro8748 I think that's more stupid homeowner than poor ;) I cannot understand what would posess someone to buy a house in 2022.

@beaversforlife1298 2 aylar önce

I don't live in the UK but I face a similar problem in Malta. Me and my brother will face a big challenge in finding a house or even a home. Prices for a house average at about 450k. One may opt to rent an appartment but thats not cheap either. My father tells me just 20 years ago, houses were 200k cheaper than they are today and about 10-12 years before that, houses costed about the same as a car.

@e.t.theextraterristrial837 2 aylar önce

Hey man, I'm from Malta as well and I work in iGaming so in theory I should be able to afford a place of my own. Nope! If I was Maltese I'd stay with my parents to save as much money as possible and invest to be able to afford a place of my own 😂

@EpicGamingDwarf 2 aylar önce

wait so, prices are falling but interest rates are rising, meaning loans are less affordable for lower income people? wouldnt this actually cause a shrinking of middle class home owners, with a lack of increase in lower class home owners, leaving only upper class people being able to afford the upfront costs or interest rates?

@821Drifter128 2 aylar önce

Yes.

@laurynasjagelo5075 2 aylar önce

Well, you can afford a good tent, if you take a loan. Not sure if you can pitch it to your convenience though.

@sdrawkcabUK 2 aylar önce

you will own nothing and be happy.

@jamessmith1652 2 aylar önce

Yep. It's mostly cash buyers/investors propping up the market right now.

@paulgibbons2320 2 aylar önce

@@jamessmith1652 that's not a market. It's a protectorate . To keep peasents out. A market which provides no housing for people is not fit for purpose.

@sdrawkcabUK 2 aylar önce

house prices may fall but the fundmental problem will remain: too many people, not enough houses. Without a massive expansion of housing supply, houses will continue to be expensive and out of reach for many. Any fall in mortgages/rents will in any case get cancelled out by inflation and COL, leaving no one especially better off.

@zUJ7EjVD 2 aylar önce

Which is why we need right to build laws like in California. No home-owner wants housing nearby (or even in the same country) and unless the government can steamroll opposition like in Japan the supply issue will never be fixed.

@CritLoren 2 aylar önce

Not sure if it's an issue of not enough houses for too many people, the commodification of house owning has made it a market for companies to just buy up houses on the market and put them in the renting market instead for high prices. The house supply can increase as much as it wants, but if the leeches that are these housing companies keep buying them up we'll still get the expensive ones.

@damienheads7151 2 aylar önce

We have over a million people coming to Britain every year. You can build as many houses as you want, you will never match the demand

@zUJ7EjVD 2 aylar önce

@@damienheads7151 We have no choice. Either we meet demand or homelessness becomes the norm for British youth. Or you could cut immigration, but considering that would hurt the economy I wouldn't recommend it.

@markjewell911 2 aylar önce

House prices can fall , but there still won’t be enough of them! Build more and kerb immigration!

@hanquanphoon5664 2 aylar önce

House price/rent/mortgage should be included in how inflation is calculated/taken into consideration when setting bank rates.

@noizyninja4446 2 aylar önce

You didn’t mention the fact that banks don’t want to lend money for mortgages to first time buyers because they see them as too big of a risk

@Hession0Drasha 2 aylar önce

If the 30% crash mostly comes off the most expensive housing, that's not good enough. We need 200k houses to go down to 160, to give back the missing bottom rungs of the ladder. To destroy the captive rental market and force it to be competetive, instead of extortive.

@SaintGerbilUK 2 aylar önce

Nothing like wanting to destroy a market which keeps a great many people out of poverty when they are retired.

@Hession0Drasha 2 aylar önce

@@SaintGerbilUK At the cost of having the young live hand to mouth and not have kids.

@SaintGerbilUK 2 aylar önce

@@Hession0Drasha young people don't have money that's part of being young, but you get more as you gain experience. People are starting their careers later so of course don't get up to their earning potential until much later in life. It's the consequences of their own decisions, where as you want to destroy people and choose winners and losers.

@Hession0Drasha 2 aylar önce

@@SaintGerbilUK my father had a mortgage on a house when he was 22, he'd paid it off by the time he was 30. A starter home now takes 30+ years to pay off. If you live with your parents for untill 25 or 30, to be able to have saved a deposit in the first place. If you pay rent you have to wait for experienced level pay to kick in, to be able to save anything. When does that start, 35? 40? To be able to try and have a family. Having subsidised a pensioner for the first 15 years of your working life, not even counting taxes. With nothing to show for it, apart from work experience. 😑 if that's all there is, what's the point of living in the uk?

@SaintGerbilUK 2 aylar önce

@@Hession0Drasha that's nonsense it's been standard for a mortgage to take 25 years for 40 years or more, sure there are 30 year mortgages now that's due to rising housing prices. If your father paid his mortgage off in 8 years, he either won the lottery or is lying. And you're welcome to leave whenever.

@jim-es8qk 2 aylar önce

Help to buy schemes, stamp duty holidays, or even a new round of quantative easing. Every time you think the housing market is finished they manage to find a new way of keeping it artificially propped up. Often with 100s of billions of pounds of tax payers money.

@michaelstimpson1137 2 aylar önce

The government needs to keep real estate prices going upwards as it's the main driver of economic growth aka new money creation through loans and mortgages

@ArgumentumAdHominem 2 aylar önce

@@michaelstimpson1137 When the main source of your country's GDP are internal loans you know it's time to leave :D. Baron Munchausen pulled himself out of a mire by his own hair, but will that help in real life I wonder :D I wonder when did UK decide that producing and exporting things is inefficient compared to juggling numbers in an office

@Balorian 2 aylar önce

You should do a video looking at how a government change 8 years ago caused Canadian housing to go up to insane levels where most can't afford a home. I believe Canada is the riskiest housing market in the G20.

@Yutappy99 2 aylar önce

The decline in house prices isn't because of more affordable housing coming to the market. It's because of the high interest rates forcing owners to sell because they can't afford the mortgage anymore. Landlords are also selling because rent is too high for people to pay and the cost is too high for landlords to just sit on an empty property. I tell you, good news will only come when more affordable housing is put on the market. That is the only time when prices will actually fall. As long as the Conservative is in government then there will never be any good news.

@stevenhull5025 2 aylar önce

Rubbish. Landlords are selling because they borrowed money to buy the property on interest only fixed mortgages which are now due to increase. The rent the tenant pays will not be enough to cover the new mortgage repayment. Hence the landlord has no option but to sell. Another reason is the new regulations due soon prohibiting landlords serving a section 21 notice, allowing pets and basically losing more control over their own properties. EPC's are another nail in the landlords coffin. Expect a massive shortfall of rental properties on the market resulting in even higher rents.

@gabrieldsouza6541 2 aylar önce

housing prices declining is what causes housing to become more affordable

@WatchingTheo 2 aylar önce

Section 24 has also stopped landlords claiming mortgage interest as an expense so landlords are paying more tax on their rental income which has forced landlords to increase rents.

@zUJ7EjVD 2 aylar önce

I can personally attest to this productivity issue stemming from not being able to live in productive areas. As an autistic person who can't drive and gets anxious being too far from home, location is 90% of the reason I am unemployed and socially disconnected. My situation is different, but young people especially have a hard time entering productive spaces when they don't live there.

@blueamenaa749 Aylar önce

Same for me. I live in France, I'm a single mom with 3 kids. So I can't live in any cities. I speak English fluently but I'm cleaning houses because it's the only job I can find. The whole thing is a scam. Take care.

@KaitlynFedrick 2 aylar önce

I'm beginning to think treating housing as a commodity was a mistake

@Bushflare 2 aylar önce

We don't treat housing as a commodity. Housing IS a commodity. There's not enough room for everyone to have the house they'd like in the place they'd like it. Space is finite. Reality doesn't change just because it'd be convenient if it did. You gotta accept the limits we're working with.

@matthewparker9276 2 aylar önce

@@Bushflare housing is a resource, but that doesn't mean it has to be a commodity.

@Bushflare 2 aylar önce

@@matthewparker9276 SHELTER is a resource. HOUSING is a commodity. If all people want is a roof over their heads then we can just build blocks of flats for everyone to live in but that's not what drives the housing market because people want MORE than shelter. They want comfort, amenities, and proximity to work.

@nothereandthereanywhere 2 aylar önce

@@BushflareI accept that. The problem here is that we have to buy a limited options and try to beat the demand from richer population that is willing to buy multiple properties. And that is what I think the original poster was writing about. Some people have multiple properties, some have nothing and can be sure of nothing - if you rent, you may be priced out soon enough and will have to downsize. Or if the house is sold, you have to move out.

@big_slurp4603 2 aylar önce

@@Bushflare "If all people want is a roof over their heads then we can just build blocks of flats for everyone to live in" thats what we did after WW2, and even those hovels are extortionate in price now

@redandro10 2 aylar önce

I hope that there will be another housing crash soon 🙏. Current house prices are too high for people to purchase their first homes or to start family. With current housing policy and slow housing development, allowing properties to be an asset class for investment/wealth accumulation is unconscionable. Yes, it will be painful, but such correction is necessary and long overdue.

@smada36 2 aylar önce

Anyone would think that theoretic wealth and unlimited growth were unsustainable. Who knew 🤷‍♂

@serebii666 2 aylar önce

"theoretic wealth and unlimited growth were unsustainable." All wealth is theoretic. But it depends on what you mean by "unlimited". Things gain value because we believe they do, and human wants and desires are bottomless. You can certainly attempt to grow economies forever, the limit is not value, but physical scarcity like raw materials (but not really since we are on the cusp of space mining), physical space (land on Earth is finite) and human resources (population stagnation which can however be counteracted, it is limited by individual choice). For the situation in the UK, it is a case of over a decade of Government austerity not investing is the basic social services and infrastructure that allows for growth, all the while population kept growing, but without additional building.

@LucasFernandez-fk8se 2 aylar önce

Unlimited growth is sustainable and possible. Just not forever. We can have unlimited economic growth in society but we can’t expect to avoid recessions forever. Recessions reallocate misplaced capital. But if we got rid of social security/ pensions for the old then even with the aging crisis in the west we could still have unlimited growth

@katlange6627 2 aylar önce

We bought in 2019 and let's just say we got very lucky for a number of reasons. A lot of our friends just missed the window for buying before covid craziness, and frankly even if it hurts some, including myself, it needs to happen to correct a broken system. Plus I could be wrong, but I think homeowners, younger ones at least, could also see a benefit from falling prices when looking to buy the next house as that next place will have presumably fallen by a similar amount. And I genuinely believe that, our equity's not tied up in the mortgage so even if they fell we'd still be making a profit. Interest rates need to be this high unfortunately, it's prices that need to come down.

@Loundsify 2 aylar önce

We need a strong pound as we're a net importer.

@adamgbk1 2 aylar önce

I think the falling prices are exclusively positive if a balance sheet recession happens in the housing sector then investors will just diversify elsewhere, and before anyone starts there is more than enough housing it just isn't affordable the hope has always been that by making more that the price would come down with supply but with the way MP's are (not in my backyard) this would never have happened. There IS one downside I'm worried about though most of the pricing for anything you've ever bought has been priced intentionally based on how much money you have left over after necessary expenses (like utilities, HOUSING and sustenance) they always want to get that £300~ a month that they estimate MOST people have to spend so conceivably a housing crash could see the prices of everything else go up BUT most business that are engaged on a global level likely wouldn't make this change it'd be too big a risk and with more money to go around they'd likely bank on sales quantity instead by leaving prices the same. I really believe that it's all positive.

@gabrieldsouza6541 2 aylar önce

there's a supply shortage

@hilosky 2 aylar önce

we've been building a fraction of what we used to, while population has been growing faster and faster

@napoleonibonaparte7198 2 aylar önce

If it was under Truss, her plan would've been to literally rent everyone a ladder to climb the social ladder.

@jmiller7209 2 aylar önce

House prices might drop back to 2018 levels before continuing up again. Some first time buyers with no debt and enough cash saved will benefit from this but it's hardly the gamechanger people in the comments are acting like.

@jmiller7209 2 aylar önce

If we want to solve the long term trend we need to build more homes in high demand areas and reduce immigration. Also this fall in prices will hurt renters as landlords are faced with higher mortgage interest and may react by selling their property or charging higher rent.

@billytheripper4 2 aylar önce

@@jmiller7209since when does anyone care about renters bruh

@user-ok7lw5zf4h 2 aylar önce

Unfortunately I remember the 2008 credit crisis. House prices were vastly over stated then, and although there was a slight recession in house prices in the rest of the UK, London house prices didn't go down. House prices are inelastic. They only go down when sellers are forced to sell. Otherwise they wait on losses until the market improves. And they won't be forced because the banks collude with the house owners in order to prevent a house price panic, so that they can maintain their 'risk' exposure since all their security trading is heavily based on securitized debt: houses in other words. Its a case of if no-one recognises the risk, then the game can continue. I'm in my forties now and I moved out of London and bought a home in Scotland. Houses are much more affordable. And although my house price might crash; this is actually good news for me, since the mean value for homes in the UK exceed my four bed house with large garden, that if the house prices do fall, then my next home will be more affordable regardless of its absolute price. And this is the problem with the UK; they (the banks etc) can play games with prices in London, in a way that they cannot do in Germany for example. The UK economy is dominated by London. If you are young, I suggest that you leave London. It's all a mirage. When teachers in London have to live on canal boats, then you must realise that only very young teachers with less experience would put up with it.

@Omar6000 2 aylar önce

I usually enjoy these videos that help explain economics in simpler terms for the average Joe to understand, but you’ve done us all a massive disservice by not mentioning how house prices got so high to begin with. The reason why the UK housing market is so inflated, and the reason why prices WILL NOT drop drastically is because of the lack of house building over the past 3 or more decades. Compounding the issue, the government has not replenished stock of the council houses they’ve sold during that same period. Additionally, due to the weak Sterling, property prices are very enticing to overseas “investors”. Mark my words, house prices cannot and will not drop precipitously.

@elindred 2 aylar önce

If people are downsizing homes they're not increasing the overall supply of housing; they're shifting the supply to bigger expensive homes which new homeowners can't afford anyway. Lowering house prices by raising interest rates doesn't make them more affordable; it just makes banks wealthier. Brits upset at housing affordability ought to consider what pressures are raising housing demand so high despite low birth rates among the English.

@anthonylulham3473 2 aylar önce

Nail on the head. With a national birthrate of 1.6 .... since 1970's , it would mean that for 40 grandparents, there are 32 Parents and then 26 Children. 26 children take up a lot less space than 40 grandparents. also a reminder that the 1970's WAS two full generations ago.... (children born to 25year old parents)

@MrLittlecat123 2 aylar önce

For the future of next generation... it has to burst!

@sdrawkcabUK 2 aylar önce

what future?

@wogsi 2 aylar önce

For the current generation.*

@CalimeroDu64 2 aylar önce

Real sold house prices are never "live". It takes a few months for the actual prices paid to be reflected in statistics. The recent drop is from house that probably sold in March-April this year.

@roro4787 2 aylar önce

we have a similar problem in India, cost of housing for my generation is 4-5 times that of my parents' generation. Its driving me crazy

@MrHalRichards 2 aylar önce

One of the guys that The Big Short was about has recently shorted the housing market again. The financial sector is making all the same mistakes as 2008. Its probably about to happen again.

@georgecaplin9075 2 aylar önce

The chart they show makes it look like house prices have been dropping since Aug ‘22. If you look closely, the chart measures inflation. The line which shows the earliest point at which prices STOPPED RISING, (not falling), is Nationwide in the middle of January. Two of the other three don’t show prices even stagnating until April and August. The most recent ONS figures on that graph don’t even show them dropping at all. I’m not saying TLDR are wrong, just that lines going down from left to right don’t automatically paint a fair picture.

@guillaumeguinard4470 2 aylar önce

This is silly. The video clearly says prices were still rising in June and when the graph comes up the voiceover says "In the past couple of months prices started declining". It also makes logical sense that for a price trend to lower, increase needs to slow down, then stagnate, then decrease happens. The only way this is confusing is if you watch the video with the sound off and then don't know how to read a graph, in which case this video is indeed challenging. Yet being challenging is required to get anywhere close to the full picture.

@georgecaplin9075 2 aylar önce

@@guillaumeguinard4470 I explained in my comment, I know perfectly well how to read a graph, but there is a known practice in all walks of analysis of designing graphs, that at first glance, paint the picture the graph designer wants to show. The graph used is a derivative. The same information on a graph of prices, (not change in prices), wouldn’t show immediate left-to-right decline, rather prices rising over most of the graphs area, only to slow slightly on the very right. I’m not saying they’re wrong, just that they’re using the data the way they want to. If you’re unaware of this common practice, then you are either inexperienced or naive. I never said it was confusing, I wasn’t confused. I saw through their attempts to spin a narrative.

@danhunt3327 2 aylar önce

Yep, this should really have been made clearer in the graph

@youtubing9762 2 aylar önce

Control of the market, pure and simple... People will stop buying for awhile, but because barely any houses are being built prices don't drop much, so when things become a little more reasonable, people start buying again. But the prices barely dropped at all. I think the greedy will one day see themselves kicked out of the UK if this keeps on going on... I'm both sad and angry... A created housing crisis and a created currency crisis. The business owners want their "workers" to get back into the hamster wheels again.

@Andrew-rc3vh 2 aylar önce

Bear in mind the housing stock we do have has improved in quality since the 70s. Being a good investment made people invest in renovation.

@MJ-YT-USR 2 aylar önce

I live in a middle of the table area in terms of house prices. Prices have fallen here by at least 10% from their 2022 peak, perhaps even getting close to 15%. This will have put some people into negative equity already. If prices continue to drop and reach a 25% drop from their 2022 peak then negative equity and repossession rates will start to tick up rapidy. This will accelerate the price drop further and then we're into a vicious cycle all the way to a financial crisis. But this time there's no money in the public purse to bail things out.

@TheBlackManMythLegend 2 aylar önce

Let it burn

@fnorgen 2 aylar önce

Isn't it fun! If housing prices don't go down, people can't afford to live. If housing prices go down, the economy crashes. Sorry guys, but the Economy demands sacrifices.

@Bushflare 2 aylar önce

@@fnorgen But hey. At least GDP go up! Big number good!

@llanieliowe794 2 aylar önce

I'm personally glad house prices are falling. It's finally giving a chance for the working class to get on the ladder

@googane7755 2 aylar önce

Thank god. Buying housing for speculation should straight up be illegal. We wouldn't be in this mess if we weren't squeezing the working class for everything they're worth.

@akiratoshimori1633 2 aylar önce

I am a Japanese. I think it would be a good idea for people living in Europe and America to look into the collapse of Japan's economic bubble starting at 1990. Before 1993, stock and real estate prices began to fall, but many people, myself included, saw it as a buying opportunity, as the economy was good and people spent a lot of money. However, after 1993 Japan's economy and people's mind really cooled down. After all, over 10 years, the price of real estate has decreased by 1/5.

@billytheripper4 Aylar önce

Hello just letting you know, you just say "I am Japanese". It's racist towards Japanese people to say things like "a Japanese"

@AcanthaDante 23 gün önce

@@billytheripper4It's also racist to expect perfect use of English from someone whose native language has a completely different root and structure. The way we use "a" doesn't exist in Japanese so someone who speaks it natively might misuse it.

@billytheripper4 23 gün önce

@@AcanthaDante I think it's quicker if OP just checks his a privilege before writing hurtful comments

@user-pf4sk8im4b 2 aylar önce

My rent went up literally as this video came out. Just got the e-mail a few hours ago from the letting agent. Still can't afford to buy, bit of lose-lose for most of my generation.

@Ronantoc 2 aylar önce

The housing data is on a 6 month lag. House prices have already fallen at least 5 more like 10-15%. Some are predicting we won’t see a real bottom til 2025.

@lonyo5377 2 aylar önce

Inflation has been over 10% relative to peak prices, so if prices had not moved they would have gone down 10%+ in inflation adjusted terms. Any drops above this are even more. Even on a wage adjusted basis there's been a much bigger drop in prices than the raw £ figure shows

@rok1475 2 aylar önce

Are you saying a drop from 8 to 12x average salary to 6 to 10 will make housing affordable?

@Frankablu 2 aylar önce

@@rok1475 We just need a new normal of house prices fall by 5% each year.

@diverdiver729 2 aylar önce

I hope they drop 50 percent or more

@SilverWong-yo5iu 2 aylar önce

Agreed from peak to now, already down 10 to 15 %, depends on area but even if interest rate remains the same for UK, there are millions coming to renew their mortgage from around 2 % IR to around 6 %,. And guess why BOE put a brake on IR? Have they noticed a recession already arrived? Job cuts.? Holding my breath, next year will drop another 15%, provided the Financial market doesn't go bust in 2024.

@fiddley 2 aylar önce

It's mad how a few weeks of 1 or 2% reductions in house prices causes such a frenzy of excitement, considering that for 99.9% of the last 30 years house prices have been growing at 2, 3, 4% or more. It's like Hermes knocks 1p off of its £25,000 handbag and everyone loses their shit. Mental.

@georgescott6354 Aylar önce

As a home owner I would really prefer the house prices to go up rather than down 😂

@dawidrejczak3208 2 aylar önce

The cure for all problems is a cascading tax. This will force people to only own 1 property not 2, 4 or more

@leemactavish3104 2 aylar önce

Personally I think 10% but that will recover within a year or two. Yes base rate is makings things hard but we have also had very high wage growth, time base rate goes down soon be back up again. Also builders will just stop building new builds if a drop cutting the supply

@Embassy_of_Jupiter 2 aylar önce

Usually interest rates climb, then they plateau, then they drop again after 1-2 years, and that's when we have the crashes. We aren't even in the plateau phase yet, as far as I'm aware. So expect the "real" crash in a year or two.

@keithd26 2 aylar önce

Downsizing does not increase supply. If I buy one house and sell one house, the net supply changes by zero.

@recklessnova9490 2 aylar önce

Can you do a video about foreign countries buying uk homes and how that affects housing prices and rent prices? I’ve heard about Chinese companies buying homes in London and leaving them empty

@619wisey 2 aylar önce

*Home owners* " I bloody hope it doesn't crash " *Renters* " Pleaaase crash it needs to happen* Arguably it'll end up being somewhere in the middle and both sides won't be happy.

@hydraflyer 2 aylar önce

Disagree I'm a home owner and I want it to crash so badly. Because my next house percentage wise will fall more and I have a HTB scheme so I'll pay back less. I have more to gain by them coming down

@spacechannelfiver 2 aylar önce

This is not good for the rental market, prices are going up 10% YoY and landlords are selling up - reducing the stock and increasing competition.

@mexicanopdb8452 2 aylar önce

It's not about the normal owners, it's about the landlords

@OriginalPiMan 2 aylar önce

@spacechannelfiver If a landlord sells, who are they selling to? They either selling to another landlord, which means no change. Or they are selling to an owner-occupier, which means one less person trying to rent in addition to the one less house available for rent. It's a wash. (They could also sell to someone moving from owned home to owned home, but that just means the same maths can be done on the buyer's previous house instead) There are plenty of things that can impact property prices, but landlords selling has only a minimal impact.

@theinternetofrandomthings7796 2 aylar önce

If the market crashes its not like renters will be able to afford a house anyway, as banks won't loan anyone money to buy a house. Also a house price crash will no doubt come with an economic crash and that will impact employment, further reducing the likelihood renters can buy a house as well. UK needs to increase its supply of quality housing, and gradually improve the salary to house price ratio, either by raising salaries at a faster rate, or reducing the rate at which house prices increases.

@annakissed3226 2 aylar önce

Watch as no matter how low house prices go interest rates will keep going up to reduce inflation. This is because asset prices such as shares or houses do not count towards inflation which is a measure of money in the economy

@matthewparker9276 2 aylar önce

Inflation isn't a direct function of money in circulation. If it was managing inflation would be much easier.

@joecurran2811 13 gün önce

@@matthewparker9276It's not measured by the BOE, some would say for political reasosns. It's backfiring on them now.

@SWBF2-2005IsBestStfu 2 aylar önce

Sooooo, its not the good type of house prices going down where people who used to not be able to afford a house can now, but the bad version of house prices going down where only those who are rich/can buy in cash can now afford to hoard more houses... Yay

@Lando-kx6so 2 aylar önce

This is arguably the biggest issue in the UK right now but instead of working to solve this the tories want to scapegoat asylum seekers & get "tougher" on immigration

@dazzassti 2 aylar önce

Problem is in the UK we’ve had massive immigration for 2 decades, many of these migrants we’re living 10 deep in a flat. I’ve seen this first hand many many times, all these people then have children and want better housing. Ultimately there a massive disparity in supply and demand, there’s no way house prices will go down for long when every council has 20000 people on their lists!

@taipizzalord4463 2 aylar önce

Now the government should encourage them to fall more by allowing local councils to buy in bulk at 3% the 'market' value then refurb (if needed) and convert to social stock. Even that 3% is just an overhead fee. Any owner occupiers with a mortgage will have their debt cleared. Not paid off my the government. Actually annulled. And tenants living in a BTL / HMO can stay there at discounted affordable rent. If the property is in a mess, then it will be refurbed in less than 4 months. Any overleveraged landlords will have to pay back the debt. If they cannot, it will be written down but they will still have to pay some back. Not to banks, but the government.

@laxi8305 2 aylar önce

I don't understand why falling house proces would EVER be a bad thing for anyone other than people wanting to sell for a big profit. I get wanting to move into a another house but other than that.... cry me a RIVER

@plerpplerp5599 2 aylar önce

Most things happen for a reason. Mostly the reason is because people are basically stupid and make bad decisions.

@GosWardHen98 2 aylar önce

Im not expecting a miricle. The BoE has shown inconsistent management over the last 7 years.

@erdalask5877 2 aylar önce

There are a lot of solutions for this problem and it is a growing MAJOR problem worldwide, Governments can build houses and sell them with %0 interest rate in a long term with little monthly payments, to prevent people trying to profit from the houses, these houses can be sold to people with no house at first. Because even if demand decrease, since the supply is same the prices won't really change unless there's a huge crisis or something so all you have to do is give the lower-mid income people an opportunity to purchase a home. This will boost the economy and decrease the inflation.

@jasbindersingh2441 2 aylar önce

They didn't go up in June. They went up 6 months before in December, cos those land registry figures are lagged ....by about 6 months

@giansideros 2 aylar önce

3:15 expensive housing is also ultimately paid by employers through wages. Any company that wants to invest in the UK will have to pay sufficiently enough to cover someones rent or mortage (as well as other living costs), so as these rise, they'll make the cost of labour uncompetitively expensive compared to places where rent is cheaper.

@ndchunter5516 2 aylar önce

This would require wages to actually keep up with costs which they don't

@stephanguitar9778 2 aylar önce

In theory, not in practice.

@CyFr 2 aylar önce

We've been wondering if the canadian housing market will burst for the last couple of decades.

@FullaEels 2 aylar önce

house prices need to fall. to afford to rent a medicore flat in a lot of places, you need to work a job that pays a bunch more than minimum wage (which is rough because a lot of areas only have service jobs or super high competition office jobs). in my area, the rent on council flats went up about £200 a month in the past 5 or so years. Obviously differs depending on the street, but still.

@stevenhull5025 2 aylar önce

If you bothered working harder at school and had good grades then you could have progressed to higher education resulting in better paid employment and not mediocre minimum wage jobs. The trouble is, so many whine about their circumstances instead of getting off their butts and doing something about it.

@tnymln 2 aylar önce

@@stevenhull5025 The thing is that unless we automate everything, then there will be people required to do these jobs. Some people are not able to enter into higher education, for whatever reason, and telling them that they should have tried harder is not constructive or helpful. The idea that people working minimum wage jobs don't deserve to have a comfortable or dignified life (where I would hope that we would agree that being able to house, feed and clothe yourself is a bare minimum) just because they didn't enter into higher education is a very sad life view.

@markhoulsby359 2 aylar önce

I watched this on Nebula. Don't forget about the impact of The Energy Bill (formerly the Energy Security Bill). Currently, it's awaiting Royal Assent. What may be liable to ensue as a result of its becoming law should prove to be... interesting.

@DiscoDrew 2 aylar önce

The ONS today stated that house prices went up 5% in August 23. This is misleading. Asking prices may well have gone up, but selling prices are a completely different thing. This lagging indicator will be clear in Q1 2024.

@SuperLeeChungYong 2 aylar önce

Highly recomend the 'Housing Theory of Everything' - it's a great investigation into the wider (negative) effects of high house prices. Personally, I don't think house prices are going to fall much. Inflation is set to fall to around 2.5% in 2024 which will lead to softening in interest rates. House prices have already fallen significantly in 'real' terms over the last year or so, and incomes have also started increasing significantly in the last year which has brought the house price:earnings ratio noticeably down since the peak in 2022. I expect a brief decrease but quick rebound followed by medium term stagnation.

@sidkings 2 aylar önce

Moving with Charlie youtube channel provides a far more accurate picture of the UK housing market. Much of the data the mainstream media and some other youtube channels rely on are at least 6 months out of date.

@lordflashy1358 2 aylar önce

Spot on

@projectwalden 2 aylar önce

I have just had an offer accepted on a house for 220k, 10% deposit, in south wales. Im worried that ill be immediately going into negative equity after purchase. I can afford it currently at 5.6% interest (5y fixed) but worried about going through with the purchase - especially in light of this video. Any advice? Much appreciated.

@billytheripper4 Aylar önce

Nobody will be able to help you, because they don't know how much you earn etc and circumstances like is it just you or your partner too. If you are fixing for 5 years and worried, presumably you are worried about after those 5 years? If that's the case maybe you should be going for a cheaper house, don't forget that after those 5 years you can remortgage, if somehow you pay off 5 years of a 25 year mortgage and end up in negative equity, and unable to remortgage then the country is well and truly screwed.

@JT-2312 2 aylar önce

Fundamentally, as long as building lags behind population growth, the long term trend continues to be up.

@stephanguitar9778 2 aylar önce

Lots of fixed mortgages have not rolled over yet, ie most of them. Looks like we live in a Tories sweet dream. Housing for their kids, rents collected from everyone else. Same with education, jobs, dental and medical treatment. Run everything that the tories do through this filter and you will understand them. The last Labour government failed to undo these aspects of the Thatcher years. Lets hope starmers future government gets its act together.

@James-mb3je 2 aylar önce

Let's hope. I wouldn't bet on it tho :|

@jamessmith1652 2 aylar önce

Labour started this in the Blair years. Prices were rock bottom under Major.

@James-mb3je 2 aylar önce

@jamessmith1652 the problem is more wage suppression than house price inflation. Labour shares the blame but the majority belongs to the tories.

@krzysztoftryka399 2 aylar önce

At 1% interest rate on mortgage: A house priced £200,000 (£20,000 deposit) - monthly cost: £827 (20 years mortgage). Interests payed to bank: £150. At 5.25% interest rate on mortgage this house's price would have to go down to £143,000 (30% down) to maintain monthly cost at the same level (£827). Interests payed to bank: £537/month. Anything less than 30% price drop makes buying a house more expensive than a year ago. Also - much more money will end up in a bank's pocket (over 3 times more). Meaning less money in the pocket of a seler. Meaning less money to stimulate the economy. Are we all happy to own nothing, yet?

@misterschifano 2 aylar önce

In the past, warfare and conquest regulated accumulation by spending, pillaging, or destroying capital and by reducing populations, thus raising post-war prices. Gratefully, those things are waning now; we live in safer times than our grandparents did. But the need to correct for wealth accumulation remains, and one of the fundamental challenges of our time will be to find-- and then actually implement-- net-constructive ways in which to do so.

@mre7550 2 aylar önce

There is a huge shortage of housing in the UK, prices are unlikely to fall significantly.

@lordflashy1358 2 aylar önce

Wishful thinking

@nathanielescudero5379 2 aylar önce

The slow reaction of prices to the intrest increase could be explained by a rush of people trying to lock in fixed rate mortgage deals before rates increase even more?

@alexannal 2 aylar önce

I personally think that it is excellent that home prices are failing. Hopefully they will fall to around 4x thea average salary. This means people will be able to afford a home.

@555frontier 2 aylar önce

House Prices Party has to end, it’s been a great ride but someone has to pay the bill. Next 10 years will be hard I guess.

@aprilfox1057 2 aylar önce

I doubt very much there will be a housing crash. We are a small island with few houses. There is likely to be a small adjustment but it will bounce back.

@ArgumentumAdHominem 2 aylar önce

Everything that is happening now is strictly bad for those who don't own their home. Currently, increased interest rates make buying houses less appealing, so nobody does that. However, as soon as house prices drop and/or the interest is reduced, those who did not buy before will all immediately start trying again, causing the prices to spike again. Unless the goal is to keep interest high for long enough that half the middle class loses their starting capital to inflation... The problem of scarcity cannot be solved by shuffling around numbers. If there are 10 seats and 15 people, at least 5 will be left standing one way or another.

@BH-yk5cn 2 aylar önce

This sounds good, normal Brits can start affording homes and the people/companies hurt are the people who exploited the system.

@billytheripper4 2 aylar önce

They need to come down a bit more because we are kind of in a situation now where we are getting screwed by still high prices but now high interest too.

@Rizhiy13 2 aylar önce

Housing costs are sticky because, surprise-surpise, people have to live somewhere. It is not like fancy restaurants or new clothes, which you can skip on if you are low on money.

@ender10656 2 aylar önce

During the ad read the echo became really noticeable. Perhaps look at laying/hanging acoustic blankets around the set to reduce/stop the echo.

@archiemcberry7102 2 aylar önce

Housing prices go up, prices come down. The government is not smart enough to bring them down nor take them up.

@joshuahillerup4290 2 aylar önce

It's weird to me that a city like London would have so many people living in houses

@orastem 2 aylar önce

If prices are going down, but interest rates are high, then it's roughly as expensive to buy as before? Otherwise there'd be an increase in demand, driving prices back up?

@j502nd 2 aylar önce

Make it illegal for a household to own more than two homes

@stevenhull5025 2 aylar önce

Why?? If I can only buy 2 then I can only help ONE FAMILY have a home as they are unable to buy their own due to a number of factors. ie: Lack of capital for a deposit, bad credit score or whatever. If I can buy 10 houses then I can help NINE homeless families instead of only one. So your big idea of making it illegal will only cause more homelessness. Not very smart of you.

@stantorren4400 2 aylar önce

@@stevenhull5025You’re overlooking the fucking problem. Most people who buy multiple houses are either only keeping the houses for themself or to be landlords. You would be the exception, not the rule.

@anthonylulham3473 2 aylar önce

Make it illegal for umbrella corporations to own more than 2 non commercial units, with large appartment blocks being the only exception. (you cannot service a large appartment block asking for unanimous decisions from all the residents. it just needs a 'lord' of the land to do it)

@idraote 2 aylar önce

This goes back to the infamous harridan ordering the sale of council houses without them being replaced. This is at the same time an accusation and a solution.

@ndchunter5516 2 aylar önce

European Central Bank kept interest rates way too long down, now things started to break

@tyrport 2 aylar önce

Building investors must look fifty years ahead. Demographics says there will be a housing glut in the future. Landlords will have trouble getting their money out. This is aggravated by government increasing the costs by regulation. Money not spent on bricks & labor is useless. Some may be necessary, but not what all OCED are facing.

@iloveblender8999 2 aylar önce

It is simple: As long as there is enough demand, prices won’t fall that much.

@adamsrealm 2 aylar önce

Private Landlords should be outlawed fullstop.

@annakissed3226 2 aylar önce

House Prices may well fall but it will do nothing for the inflation. Why? Because M1 money that is used to calculate the inflation rate only tracks money in the 'real economy', it ignores changes in the value of stocks & shares or fixed assets like housing. To track that you need M3 money. But that hasn't been used since the late seventies & early eighties In the UK we switched from M3 to M1 money. Under right wing third wave/neo-Tory Labour Prime Minister Tony Blur & Gordon Brown. A few years later Labour was announcing it had cured inflation!

@stephanguitar9778 2 aylar önce

Labour's biggest blunder. Tories can be excused as we expect nothing better from them.

@fireironthesecond2909 2 aylar önce

This is what happens when people don’t tip their landlord 😢

@richardhorton25 2 aylar önce

The price of houses will only fall when the supply of housing exceeds the demand for housing, people downsizing because they cannot afford the increased mortgage costs does not reduce the demand for housing it just reduces the price at which those people seek to acquire houses. Housebuilding at current levels will continue to cause a shortfall in supply and will maintain absurd levels of property prices and extortionate rents for those unable to have the option of home ownership. The sale of council houses was a disastrous policy if it did not include replacement of equivalent housing commensurate with population growth

@patdbean 2 aylar önce

Completely missed out population growth. From 58 million in 2000 to 67 million Today. And 600,000 in The last year alone. Japan on the other hand has had a stagnent population since the 1990s you can't just ignore population growth.

@wind4758 2 aylar önce

Don't worry, there's no way the government or the investors will let the market crash.

@blablup1214 2 aylar önce

Yes, if everything goes wrong, tax payers will rescue those poor poor companies 😂

@nickbarton3191 2 aylar önce

Liz Truss would.

@Ruddpocalypse 2 aylar önce

I don’t want a bubble burst, I want a bubble implosion. Make houses worth so little that people can buy it like they’d buy a new car

@juangomezfuentes8825 2 aylar önce

Simple solution, build more houses. The whole problem started when they introduced those green belt policies among others that makes very difficult to build new houses where are needed. The sector is now an oligopoly because only huge companies with very strong financial muscle can operate in an extremelly overregulated market. There is not a single new development proposed that it is rejected by the neighbours. Of course, if you need permission from Tesco to build a new supermarket next to them, what are they going to say?. The politicians have interests in tht housing market too, so dont expect them to easy the regutalation. For what, to stop making them richer?. If in a country, the ones that decided if more houses are build are the same ones that profits from increases of prices in the housing market, how are you going to solve the problem with the only real solution of building more houses?.

@itsawill9268 2 aylar önce

I agree as long as it doesn’t go too far and destroys a lot of countryside

@detectiveofmoneypolitics 2 aylar önce

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank

@richardjames3022 2 aylar önce

Two problems: the lack of new builds and the lack of affordable land to build on.

@jimpaddy79 2 aylar önce

Its the land thats the problem, 80%+ of the cost of a new devlopment is the cost of the land it was built on, despite only less then 5% of the UK land mass having human declopment built on it.

@hankstaines6568 Aylar önce

I want to buy another house, but not at current prices. I'm hoping for negative equity as in the 80s.

@cd1847 2 aylar önce

I have been working 2 jobs and I get taxes about half of it on both salaries. Making my second job less profitable and I still cannot buy an house. It is 2 full time jobs, not part time